The English Premier League is, without doubt, the biggest league in world football. Its revenue dwarfs that of the other top European leagues, and 10 of the 20 richest clubs in the game play in the EPL.
One of the biggest reasons for this is its unpredictability. Any of Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, or Tottenham might conceivably win the title this season. Even Arsenal, rejuvenated under a new manager, could threaten.
That unpredictability also makes English Premier League betting endlessly entertaining. With so many markets to bet on, however, and so many bookies to bet with, it can be hard to know where to start. That’s exactly why we’ve put together this handy guide to EPL betting.
Here are our top Premiership betting tips for the 18/19 season:
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Betting for Premier League 2018
Before starting your Premier League betting journey, there are a few crucial things you need to be aware of.
The 2018/19 Premier League season begins on 10th August 2018, and finishes on 12th May 2019. Each team will play 38 games within that span.
Other important dates to be aware of are the transfer windows.
For the first time in EPL history, the summer transfer window will close before the season starts. That will happen on 9th August.
The winter transfer window will take place between 28th December 2018 and 24th January 2019.
Relegated and Promoted Clubs
As always, three clubs were relegated from the Premier League at the end of the 2017/18 season, and three were promoted from the Championship.
The three relegated clubs were:
- Swansea City
- Stoke City
- West Brom
The three promoted clubs were:
- Wolverhampton Wanderers (Champions)
- Cardiff City
- Fulham (Play-Offs Winners)
Two top clubs – Arsenal and Chelsea – have changed their managers ahead of the new season. Longstanding Gunners boss Arsene Wenger and 2016/17 champion Antonio Conte are out; Unai Emery and Maurizio Sarri are in.
The only other major coaching change took place at West Ham, where former Man City manager Manuel Pellegrini took over from David Moyes.
Basic Betting Tips
There are a few Premiership betting tips which you absolutely must be aware of ahead of the new season.
These are the three most important:
1. Choose the Right Bookie.
We’ll talk about this in more detail below. In short, however, it’s highly worth putting the time into finding the right bookie for you. Have a good look around a few different sites, look into the sign up offers and ongoing promotions, and read plenty of reviews before making your pick.
2. Check the Odds
Putting down a good bet isn’t as simple as just wagering on what you think will happen. You also want to get good value.
If Man City are playing Cardiff at home, for example, they’ll be massive, odds-on favourites to win. You’d have to bet so much money to make a profit that it’s simply not worth it.
If Leicester are playing Crystal Palace, on the other hand, the odds will be much more favourable on all three outcomes. It’d be more profitable to focus on this game.
Also, consider checking the odds regularly in the days before a match. If they’re going significantly up or down, this gives you an idea of what most people are betting on.
If Leicester start at 4/1 to beat Palace, for example, then you check back and they’re down to 2/1, that’s a sign lots of people think the Foxes are good value.
3. Listen to the Experts
The tricky thing about football is that everyone considers themselves an expert, from Alan Shearer to your mate Alan at the pub.
Do your research, and find experts who give sound, consistent and smart advice. Look for people who both watch the games, and use statistical analysis.
There are no sure things in betting, but taking advice from a true Premier League betting expert will significantly increase your chances.
Premier League 18/19 Top 6 Clubs
Whilst the Premier League is famously unpredictable (who’d have thought Leicester City would ever win the title?), there is still a clear “Big 6”: Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham.
A lot of EPL betting will focus on these teams. They’re on TV more often, and people are therefore better acquainted with their players.
Here’s a quick look at the top 6 clubs, in order of how they finished last season.
The 2017/18 Manchester City team were arguably the greatest to ever play in the Premier League.
They smashed some of the biggest season records in the history books for fun, including most total points (100), most away points (50), most wins (32) and most goals (106).
Man City are unlikely to lose any of their first team players in the summer transfer window. They’ve already bought standout winger Riyad Mahrez from Leicester, and – with seemingly limitless resources at their disposal – will surely look to strengthen their squad further.
If you’re looking to bet on Man City for next season… well, you won’t get good odds. Pep Guardiola’s side are heavy favourites to win the 18/19 title, and it’s not hard to see why.
It was a strange 2017/18 campaign for Manchester United.
The Red Devils enjoyed their best league season since Alex Ferguson retired in 2013, finishing second. Despite this, the fans grew increasingly restless as the season went on, primarily because of Jose Mourinho’s defensive tactics. Winter signing Alexis Sanchez, who was supposed to breathe new life into the attack, also underwhelmed.
Still, there’s room for optimism at Old Trafford heading into the new season. Paul Pogba enjoyed a brilliant World Cup, Sanchez has had a full pre-season to bed into the team, and the highly-rated Brazilian Fred has arrived to bolster the midfield.
Given Mourinho’s track record of success (he’s won at least one league title at every club he’s managed), Manchester United could represent good value in the Premiership outright betting market.
Despite Harry Kane having another outstanding season, scoring 30 goals in 37 appearances, Spurs once again came up short in 2017/18. There’s no shame in finishing 3rd, of course, but this is a club that’s desperate for silverware.
Between Kane, Alli, Son, Dembele, Vertonghen, Lloris, and a range of other talented players, they certainly have the squad to challenge for the title.
There is a sense, however, that time might be running out for this team. The excellent Toby Alderweireld looks likely to leave, and highly-regarded manager Mauricio Pochettino is already being eyed by some of Europe’s biggest teams.
Can Spurs finally put it all together in 2018/19?
What a summer it’s been for Liverpool.
The mistake-prone Karius has been replaced by Alisson, brought in at a world record fee for a goalkeeper. Their lightning fast attack, which managed 84 goals in 38 games last year, has been bolstered by Xherdan Shaqiri. The midfield – arguably a weak spot in recent seasons – has been transformed by the arrivals of Naby Keita and Fabinho.
Klopp’s side made the Champions League Final last season, but were unable to mount any kind of title challenge, finishing a whopping 25 points off top spot. It’s hardly a bold claim to suggest they’ll be much, much closer to the top spot this time out.
Chelsea followed up their 2016/17 title triumph in abject fashion. They finished with 23 fewer points, scored 23 fewer goals, and won nine fewer games.
The club had to make a change, and opted to replace the unhappy Antonio Conte with Maurizio Sarri. Sarri had an outstanding 17/18 season with Napoli, gaining 91 points and pushing Juventus all the way to the wire in Serie A. On paper, he seems the perfect man to turn things around again.
Chelsea have already made a splash in the transfer market, beating Man City to Jorginho’s signature, and there’s surely more to come from last summer’s big arrivals, Morata and Bakayoko.
Getting back into the top four is the very least Chelsea fans will expect next season.
For our money, Arsenal are the most interesting “Big 6” team to watch heading into 2018/19. Club legend Arsene Wenger finally called it quits last season, having managed the side for 22 years. Into his sizeable shoes steps Unai Emery.
Emery won three Europa Leagues in a row at Sevilla, and won a domestic treble in his last season with PSG. He’s renowned as a tactician, and has the big-club experience to handle the pressure at the Emirates.
Arsenal have also strengthened the spine of their team, bringing in a new goalkeeper, centre-back and defensive midfielder.
Will all these changes help them bounce back, after two years of sharp decline? Gooners around the globe will certainly hope so.
How to Choose a Site for Premier League Betting
When it comes to betting for the Premier League 2019 season, you’ve got a whole lot of options regarding who you actually bet with.
At a basic level, picking a bookie comes down to your personal preferences. In short, it depends on what you value most highly in a bookmaker.
While there’s no “right” choice, however, it’s certainly worthwhile learning about your different options, and putting the time into choosing one.
These are the key criteria on which we rank bookies.
A nice welcome offer might help you decide between two bookmakers, but it shouldn’t be the biggest factor in your overall choice. These offers only tend to last a short while, after all, and you want a bookie you’re happy with for months or years to come.
Common welcome offers include matched deposits (e.g. you deposit £10, they give you £10 in free bets), and matched bets, which work in a similar way.
Finally, always make sure you read the Ts & Cs on a welcome offer before signing up!
In the long term, these are more important than welcome offers.
Ideally, you want a bookie that offers generous generic ongoing offers – accumulator bonuses, money back on lost bets, and so on – and specific offers for big EPL showdowns.
Quite simply, how many things does the bookie let you bet on?
Do they offer doubles, trebles and full accumulators? Can you pick the correct score? Can you take an over/under on corners?
The more betting options on offer, the more chances you have to make money.
Different bookies use different systems to calculate their odds, and some sites consistently offer better odds than others.
Make sure you find out which sites offer the best odds before signing up, either by reading informed reviews, or by using one of the many helpful odds-checking resources out there.
Again, the bookie that you pick for EPL betting now is hopefully going to be the one you use for months, if not years to come. Accordingly, you want to make sure the site is intuitively laid out, and simple to navigate.
We’d highly encourage checking out a few different sites, and taking a few minutes to browse each of them. You’ll quickly identify which has the best feel to it.
Mobile betting is massive business nowadays. You want a bookie that allows you to bet on-the-go, whether you’re in the pub, on a train, or even at the ground.
Most of the major bookies have their own mobile apps. Read up on reviews for them (paying particular attention to how reliable they are), and try them for yourself, before opening an account.
If the bookie you’re looking at doesn’t have an app, make sure the mobile version of their site is reliable and responsive.
Live streaming – usually only an option with the bigger bookies – is an exciting innovation that’s hit the online gambling world in recent years.
When you’re betting on a game – or just thinking about it – nothing compares to following along live. You get a far better feel for what’s happening, and can use that knowledge to either place a new in-play bet, or cash out an existing one.
Premier League Betting Offers
All Premiership betting websites, without fail, will have offers. Signup offers are a great way to get new customers through the door, and ongoing promotions help them to stick around.
Not all betting offers are created equal, however. Here are some of the best ones to look for in a potential bookie:
1. Match Deposit Offers
One of the most common types of signup bonus. In short, you deposit a certain amount of money, and the bookie matches it.
This will usually be limited to a certain amount – £50, say – and the sum the bookie contributes will often come in the form of free bets, not real money.
2. Free Bets
Currently the most popular signup offer. At the time of writing, William Hill, Coral and Paddy Power – to name just a few – are all offering free bets to new customers.
The specific sum varies from bookie to bookie. A fairly standard example, however, is that if you deposit £10, they’ll give you £40 in Premier League free bets.
3. Enhanced Odds
Rather than giving you free bets, some bookies will instead offer significantly enhanced odds on a couple of bets.
For example, you might get a 100% Profit Boost on two bets you make, effectively doubling your winnings.
Offers for Existing Users
1. Generic Offers
Some ongoing offers can be used on any Premier League match, at any time.
Popular examples of these include Acca Insurance (get your money back if only one of your acca selections fails to come in), and in-play specials, where odds for specific events may be enhanced.
2. Event-Specific Offers
A good bookie will ensure they’re always involved in the biggest clashes, courtesy of event-specific offers.
These could be enhanced odds for certain goalscorers or results, or – more appealingly for the cautious gamblers out there – money-back specials.
Premier League Betting Options
As we mentioned earlier, the general rule of thumb is, “The more betting options, the better.” For the most part, however, there are a few key bets that you’ll place time and again. These include the following:
The most important betting option of all. There’s no messing around with Premiership outright betting. Quite simply, you’re picking the overall outcome of the match. In a Premier League game, you’ll always have three options: home win, draw and away win.
The over/under is another incredibly important bet. You take a half-number – 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, etc. – and bet on whether the total amount of goals scored will be over or under that number.
The classic over/under is 2.5 goals. It typically nets lower odds than the more extreme variants, going both ways, but it’s the safest selection to take.
Draw No Bet
Draw no bet is a relatively safe wager. You pick a side to win the game, but – if it ends in a draw – your bet is effectively cancelled, and you get your stake back. Nice!
Picking the first goalscorer can be tempting, as you’ll get higher odds, but anytime goalscorer is a safer bet. You’re simply picking one player to score at any point in the match.
The most famous wager in Premier League betting. In an accumulator betting, you pick four or more results (including draws), and each one needs to come in for you to win. Accas are tricky to win, but they give tantalizing odds, and are a whole lot of fun to root for.
In addition to these common betting options, there are a couple of other fun bet types we like which tend to fly under the radar:
Total Corners Taken
This works like an over/under – you pick a number, and bet whether the number of corners is more or less than that amount. This bet can be made for just one team, or for both teams combined.
In a double result, you bet on the result at half-time and at full time. For example, if you think the first half will be tight, but one team – let’s say Arsenal – will pull away in the second half, you’d take Draw/Arsenal.
If you’re extremely confident in your pre-match analysis, this is a great way to get better odds than you would be betting on the outright result.
The Premier League is entertaining enough that you don’t need to bet on it. Having said that… having a wager or two in play definitely makes the viewing experience even more fun!
If you’re an inexperienced gambler, make sure that you follow our basic tips for betting strategy and picking a bookie. If you’ve been wagering on the EPL for a while now, you might find value in our analysis of the top six clubs, or you could consider trying out one of the lesser-known betting options we’ve identified.
Either way, we hope you’ve enjoyed the article, and – of course – that you’re as excited for the new season as we are!